Trends and Prospects of Labor Migration from Central Asian Countries to the United Kingdom

Introduction. Among European countries, the UK is experiencing one of the most acute labor shortages, especially in labor-intensive and low-prestige sectors such as agriculture. Following Brexit, the UK was compelled to expand the geography of labor recruitment beyond the traditional pool of Eastern European seasonal workers (Poland, the Baltics, Bulgaria, and Ukraine) to include Central Asian countries. This article aims to identify the trends and prospects of labor emigration from Central Asian countries to the UK within the context of growing political and economic competition among key actors in the region. Methods and materials. The study combines analytical, statistical, and sociological approaches. It draws on World Bank and IOM datasets on labor migration and remittances, complemented by thematic content analysis of Russian and British media and expert interviews. Official documents from government agencies, embassies, recruitment agencies, and migrant training centers are also examined. Analysis. The analysis covers the scale, drivers, and channels of emigration from Central Asia to the UK, the participation of Central Asian workers in the British labor market, and the prospects for seasonal migration. Results. The results show that labor shortages in the UK labor market are the primary driver of migration from Central Asia. The reorientation of migration flows from the Russian direction is explained by the economic downturn in Russia, the tightening of migration legislation and the spread of English among young people in Central Asian countries. Since 2021, there has been an increase in seasonal migration of low-skilled workers, primarily through public and private recruitment agencies. Authors’ contribution. S.V. Ryazantsev – research concept and economic analysis of labor migration; K.P. Kurylev – political aspects and international relations; A.Kh. Rakhmonov – social consequences and interview analysis; K.Kh. Rakhimov – historical context and geopolitical factors of migration; A.L. Chupin – statistical analysis and policy recommendations on migration.