Interpretable Predictive Analytics for Online Learning

The increasing use of learning management systems (LMSs) generates vast amounts of clickstream data, opening new avenues for predicting learner performance. Traditionally, LMS predictive analytics have relied on either supervised machine learning or Markov models to classify learners based on predicted learning outcomes. Machine learning excels at pattern recognition but often overlooks temporal learning dynamics and obscures the reasoning behind predictions due to the black-box nature of many algorithms. Alternatively, Markov models provide an effective solution by capturing temporal learning dynamics for prediction, uncovering distinctive learning patterns between high and low performers. Despite these advantages, Markov model classification struggles with the heterogeneity of learning sequences, limiting its broad applicability. To address these limitations and bridge the gap between the two dominant approaches, we propose a hybrid framework: sequence-based Markov machine learning classification (seqMAC). Leveraging early-stage clickstream data, seqMAC provides an interpretable sequence classification method that captures critical behavioural transitions and identifies distinct learning patterns across performance groups. Tested on six LMS samples, seqMAC effectively identified at-risk students despite sequence heterogeneity, uncovering key predictive learning dynamics that differentiate performance groups. It also demonstrated promising generalizability, accurately identifying future at-risk students based on historical clickstream data.