Climate neutrality scenarios: How they deal with economic growth, employment and social acceptance

Climate neutrality is controversially discussed - in particular regarding its implications on socio-economic factors such as economic growth, employment and social acceptance. Several scenarios inform discussions and policies on how Germany can achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045. We investigate 33 climate neutrality scenarios, using a document analysis We find that (1) 28 scenarios assume an absolute, sufficiently large, and time-lasting decoupling of economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions, despite empirical evidence that this is infeasible; (2) the scenarios focus on efficiency and consistency rather than sufficiency strategies; (3) they do not model the effects the measures proposed to achieve climate neutrality have on economic growth; (4) the scenarios do not calculate implications regarding the level and structure of employment, and (5) issues of social acceptance are mentioned but not integrated into the proposals made. Overall, the scenarios inadequately address the role of economic growth, which significantly affects the credibility and feasibility of their projections. Future scenarios therefore need to anticipate impacts in particular on economic growth but also on employment, and further socio-economic aspects in order to propose feasible and just pathways towards climate neutrality. • Climate neutrality scenarios for Germany do poorly take into account the effects of climate neutrality measures on economic growth. • Most climate neutrality scenarios assume a trend towards positive GDP growth. • Out of 33 climate neutrality scenarios, 28 assume an absolute, sufficiently large, and time-lasting decoupling of economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. • Impacts on the labor market and social acceptance of the necessary measures are poorly analyzed. • Scenario studies show an overall lack of transparency regarding their modeling assumptions.