Community Pressure Drives Population Pressure

Israel presents an anomalous fertility case: the non-Jewish sectors demonstrate dramatic fertility decline whereas the Jewish sectors maintain perplexingly high fertility rates. Traditional explanations of demographic trends focusing on economic development, educational level, women’s empowerment or contraceptive availability fall short in explaining the current situation. A national online survey (n=602) conducted in April – May 2020 explored a wide range of drivers of fertility behaviour trends. Descriptive analysis supported by further multivariate linear regression analysis identified congruence with social influence as central factor contributing to high fertility rates and the homogeneity within Israel’s disparate Jewish communities. Strong statistical correlation was found between answers to questions relating to desired family size, ideal family size, perceptions of average family size in one’s community and actual fertility. Additionally, the number of siblings and the number of children currently in a family affect fertility, whereas other demographic factors, including education and income levels, were not statistically significant. Increased understanding of these social factors can contribute to more effective population policies in Israel and other high-fertility countries.