Why some districts march more: Protest mobilization in the wake of US representatives’ election denial

Abstract Election denial is a popular tool used by election losers to challenge democratic processes, often with harmful consequences for political stability. While some research suggests that actual fraud serves as a focal point for protest, other work emphasizes citizens’ perceptions of fraud and partisanship. This study contributes to the debate by pointing to a possible mechanism for why fraud perceptions and partisanship might matter more for protest mobilization. I argue that local elite endorsement of election denial plays a crucial role in amplifying and localizing national narratives of stolen elections, making them more resonant within specific communities. I test this argument using the case of the 2020 US presidential election, where the widespread election denial narrative by President Trump led to highly uneven patterns of pro-Trump protests across the country. Using novel data on protest activity based on anonymized cellphone records and the timing of public endorsements of fraud claims by members of Congress, I demonstrate that local elite support for election denial significantly increased protest mobilization within their districts, particularly in districts already primed for dissent. This study sheds light on the democratic risks posed by election denial, showing how elite-driven disinformation can intensify and localize mobilization, even in the absence of credible claims of electoral fraud.