Topography, Seed Dispersal, and Climate Change Reduce Future Habitat for an Endangered Tropical High‐Altitude Plant

ABSTRACT Microclimate mediates plant responses to regional and elevational climate change in topographically complex mountains, but its impacts have been poorly studied. Using the locations of 44,711 individuals of Puya raimondii Harms, an endangered giant rosette plant, we determined that the species preferred elevations of 4000–4400 m, slopes of 20°–40°, and aspects of N (especially), NW and NE. We used these preferences to identify suitable habitat patches, both current and projected for 2100 assuming climate change scenarios of +3°C and +5°C. Since P. raimondii has short‐distance seed dispersal traits, we filtered those habitat patches according to three potential colonization distances (100, 500, and 1000 m). Our projections suggest a significant decrease in occupied habitat patches, with almost complete loss for the +5°C climate change scenario. Topographical preferences and poor seed dispersal, exacerbated by long lifespan, severely limit its ability to track the rapid changes expected by 2100. Assisted colonization to nearby patches using genetically representative seeds and plants, supported by applied research, could mitigate this outcome, especially if it includes engagement with local stakeholders beyond protected areas.