Divergent Paths: Military Coups and Policy Outcomes in West Africa

This paper examines the divergent outcomes of recent military coups in the four West African states of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, focusing on the question: why have the first three undergone radical shifts in foreign and domestic policy while Guinea has remained relatively stable? Through a comparative case study method, the analysis introduces a four-factor explanatory framework based on (1) colonial legacy and anti-colonial sentiment, (2) geopolitical positioning, (3) economic resource leverage, and (4) security landscape and public sentiment. The findings suggest that Guinea's early and complete break from French neocolonial influence, coastal access to maritime trade, dominant bauxite exports, and absence of widespread jihadist insurgency allowed it to avoid the diplomatic isolation and security-driven realignments experienced by its Sahelian counterparts. Conversely, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—constrained by landlocked geography, volatile security environments, and dependence on French military and economic networks—have adopted confrontational postures, aligning with Russia, China, and other non-Western powers. The paper concludes that post-coup foreign policy trajectories in West Africa are best understood through the interaction of structural and ideological factors, rather than regime type alone.