The Impact of Global Temperatures on Inflation in Gabon

This article analyzes in depth the impact of global temperature variations on inflation in Gabon through the application of an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The analysis is based on annual data covering the period 1990–2023, which makes it possible to capture both the short- and long-term dynamics between climate shocks and price fluctuations. The central objective is to understand how climate anomalies, particularly temperature increases, translate into macroeconomic instability in a country that is highly dependent on imports and whose infrastructure remains vulnerable to external shocks. The results show that a one-degree Celsius rise in average global temperature compared to the 20th-century baseline leads to a long-term increase of approximately 94 points in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This reflects not only higher prices for essential goods but also a deterioration in the monetary well-being of households, especially the most fragile groups. In the short run, climate shocks tend to generate immediate inflationary pressures, often followed by temporary deflationary episodes as markets attempt to adjust. These fluctuations are amplified by structural weaknesses, such as heavy reliance on imported food products, limited diversification of the economy, and insufficient resilience of transport and energy systems. By integrating climate dynamics into inflation analysis, this study fills a gap in the African economic literature, where environmental variables are still rarely included in macroeconomic models. The findings provide useful insights for policymakers by emphasizing the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies, economic diversification, and stronger social protection systems. In doing so, the paper contributes to the broader debate on the links between climate change, price stability, and sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Gabon as a case study.