Predictive Models for Grade 9 Mathematics Stream: Controlling for Past EQAO Performance

In 2021, Ontario replaced Academic/Applied streaming with a unified grade 9 mathematics curriculum. This decision was presented as an effort to reduce inequity in the school system. However, the existing literature fails to control for prior performance under a standardized measure. We utilize confidential student-level data from the province’s EQAO grade 3, 6, and 9 assessments to evaluate predictive factors associated with the applied mathematics stream. Data is filtered to consider students from 2006-2019 who: participated in both the grade 3 and grade 6 EQAO assessments, appear in the grade 9 data, and did not skip or repeat grades. We employ a linear probability model with fixed effects and clustered standard errors to predict whether a student takes applied grade 9 math based on EQAO data for grades 3 and 6, including: performance on EQAO assessments; Individual Education Plan (IEP) status; French Immersion (FI) status; whether the student identifies as male; first language; English Second Language (ESL) program status; and whether the student was born outside of Canada. Findings indicate that, holding other variables constant, having an IEP is associated with a statistically significant increase in the probability that a student is enrolled in the applied mathematics course when they first participate in the grade 9 EQAO assessment. We also find positive (and highly statistically significant) estimated coefficients when breaking up IEP status by indicators for specific underlying IPRC exceptionalities, and IEP with no exceptionality. Furthermore, results are robust under logistic regression. Our findings potentially provide empirical support for the province’s decision to end grade 9 mathematics streaming. Even after controlling for past performance, our findings suggest that student characteristics in prior grades – especially IEP and IPRC exceptionality status – considerably influence predicted stream, potentially limiting student’s future career paths and opportunities for higher education.