The effects of climate change on distributions of four endemic and medicinal species in the North Africa using MaxEnt modeling and GIS tools

This study examines the impacts of climate change on the distribution of four endemic North African plant species— Heteromera fuscata , Heteromera philaenorum , Thymelaea microphylla , and Genista microcephala —noted for their medicinal value. Using validated occurrence data and 19 bioclimatic variables, MaxEnt modeling was applied to simulate current and future distributions under four climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5) for the 2030 s, 2050 s, 2070 s, and 2090 s. Spatial habitat changes were assessed via ArcGIS. Key environmental drivers identified included annual mean temperature (Bio1), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18). The models performed excellently, with AUC values between 0.982 and 0.989. Results indicate that northern North Africa will remain largely suitable for these species, with limited shifts overall. However, Heteromera philaenorum is projected to face significant habitat loss and a shift toward arid zones, with mountain areas serving as potential refuges. Habitat extent for Heteromera fuscata is expected to decline from 59.79 × 10⁴ km² to 34.53 × 10⁴ km² under SSP585, and Heteromera philaenorum from 50.42 × 10⁴ km² to 9.77 × 10⁴ km². Thymelaea microphylla ’s medium suitable habitat could decrease from 28.21 × 10⁴ km² to approximately 14 × 10⁴ km², while Genista microcephala ’s highly suitable area may expand from 46.56 × 10⁴ km² to over 67 × 10⁴ km². These findings illustrate varied species responses to climate change, emphasizing the need for targeted conservation strategies under warming conditions. • Climate change impacts were assessed for four endemic and medicinal plant species in North Africa. • MaxEnt modeling and ArcGIS tools were used to project species distributions under four SSP climate scenarios. • Heteromera philaenorum is predicted to undergo the most severe habitat contraction and shift. • Key climatic drivers include annual mean temperature, temperature of the driest quarter, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. • Genista microcephala may expand under certain scenarios, showing species-specific resilience to climate change. • Results support conservation planning by identifying potential refugia and vulnerable zones.