Analyzing Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Along the Coast of Nain, NewFoundLand in Relation to Sea Level Rise

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the response of the Earth’s crust, the Earth’s gravitational field, and the worlds oceans to the thickening and thinning of global ice sheets (Whitehouse, P., 2018). GIA has been an ongoing geomorphological process across North America, influencing the Atlantic coast of Canada in relation to sea level rise (SLR). The primary driver of SLR is the melting of land-based ice sheets and mountain glaciers, contributing approximately 2 mm per year to global sea level rise (Lindsay, R., 2023). This study aims to determine whether the rate of glacial isostatic adjustment along the coast of Nain, Newfoundland will outpace the projected sea level rise by 2150. Through analyzing future SLR projections and GIA rates, the extent to which vertical land motion counters sea level rise will be analyzed. Sea level measurements were obtained using satellite altimetry data from the TOPEX, Jason-1, Jason-2, Jason-3, and Sentinel-6 satellites. These measurements do not account for the vertical movement of the Earth. Using projections from satellite-based SLR data, four simulation models were developed for the years 2000, 2050, 2100, and 2150. These models were run using Google Earth Engine through integrating rates of GIA for the city of Nain, approximately 4 mm per year, and projected SLR data from the satellite altimetry data. Comparisons will be made to the city of Umiujaq, Quebec, along Hudson’s Bay, which is expected to have similar increases in SLR, however, is experiencing GIA rates of approximately 9 mm per year. I will compare the predicted rates of SLR in relation to GIA to determine the extent of flooding along the coast of Nain for the years 2100 and 2150. Preliminary results suggest that if the rate of GIA is outpaced by SLR projections, coastal flooding risks will increase, necessitating adaptive strategies for vulnerable regions.