The impact of land use change on ecosystem services in the Huaihai economic zone for evaluation and Spatiotemporal characterization

A comprehensive understanding of the impact of land use change on ecosystem services is essential for regional sustainable development. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment by accounting for regional differences and to propose a novel approach for quantifying the relationship between land use change and ecosystem services. Based on land use data from the Huaihai Economic Zone (HEZ) during 1995-2020, spatially adjusted equivalence factors were employed to estimate ESV, while the coefficient of improved cross sensitivity (CICS) was developed to measure the linkage between land use and ESV. In addition, exploratory spatial analysis methods were applied to reveal the spatial distribution patterns of ESV across the region. The results show that: (1) From 1995 to 2020, land use in the HEZ was dominated by farmland, with increases in built-up land and water areas; (2) Regional ESV gains were primarily driven by the conversion of farmland, wetlands, and built-up land into water areas, whereas ESV losses mainly resulted from the conversion of farmland into built-up land and the transformation of woodland and grassland into farmland; (3) Regional ESV was most sensitive to the conversion of farmland to water areas and least sensitive to the conversion of woodland to built-up land; (4) The spatial distribution of ESV remained relatively stable, showing significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with the spatial effect gradually weakening over time. This study enhanced the accuracy of regional ESV estimation, dynamically analyzed the impact of land use changes on ecosystem services using the profit and loss table, and introduced CICS to provide a more intuitive measure of the relationship between land use and ecosystem services. These findings provide a reference for exploring the interaction between land use and ecosystem services in the HEZ.