Estimating the Niche Breadth of Tomicus piniperda L. on Breeding Material: A Statistical Approach

Progressive climate change has increased the emergence of bark beetle outbreaks, which justifies the need for in-depth research into their response to climatic factors in order to improve forest resource management strategies. A measure of the adaptation of species to changing conditions is provided by the determination of the breadth of their ecological niches. This study proposes a novel, minimally invasive method to estimate the niche breadth of Tomicus piniperda, a representative species in its taxonomic group. EntomologiJcal analyses were carried out on trap trees. The niche of T. piniperda was described by means of stepwise regression, and its niche breadth was found to depend significantly on the bark thickness and gallery density on stems (p < 0.001). The constructed models explained over 80% of the variation in T. piniperda niche breadth on the stems, and the differences between the observed and predicted mean niche breadth were not significant (p > 0.05), with the relative errors for individual trees generally not exceeding 13%. Data on the parameters of niches may be useful in evaluating the possible consequences of changes in climatic factors for organismal fitness, for example, or as a starting point for the construction of models of bark beetle population size.