Game Theory Analysis and Risk Quantification Model for Customs Classification Disputes in the Biopharmaceutical Industry

With the rapid development of the biopharmaceutical industry, disputes over customs classification have become increasingly frequent. This study innovatively constructs a three-tiered game analysis framework of ‘signalling-bargaining-evolution,’ breaking through the limitations of the traditional customs-enterprise binary adversarial model. A four-dimensional risk quantification indicator system covering finance, operations, reputation, and legal aspects is established to achieve end-to-end loss prediction from the onset of disputes to supply chain disruptions. The study proposes an optimised regulatory pathway based on pre-ruling in free trade zones and blockchain-based evidence storage, and designs a ‘dual-database linkage’ cross-border genetic resource scheme. The findings provide compliance decision-making support for biopharmaceutical companies, offer customs authorities audit resource allocation strategies, and advance the modernisation of the industry's governance system.