Proof-of-Concept Quantitative Assessment of the Socioeconomic Benefits and Cost Effectiveness of Earth-Observing Systems

Abstract An approach is outlined to quantitatively assess the socioeconomic benefits and cost effectiveness of Earth-observing systems. In a proof-of-concept demonstration, the benefits of different constellations of Earth-observing satellites are estimated using the methodology of the Advanced Systems Performance Evaluation Tool for NOAA (ASPEN). In ASPEN, the benefit is the degree to which an observing system or constellation of observing systems satisfies the application requirements weighted by the application priorities of those requirements. Here, a power-law transfer function converts the nowcasting application benefits into estimates of lives saved during weather-related catastrophic events (CAT events). With very substantial error bars, the current operational observing system is estimated to save more than 1200 lives annually that would otherwise be lost in U.S. CAT events. The variation of CAT deaths due to differences in potential versions of the constellation of Earth-observing satellites is described and compared to the estimated costs of the observing systems. Significance Statement Many decisions are required 1) to plan the next constellation of Earth-observing satellites, 2) to design the sensors included in that system, and 3) to operationalize that system. In principle, these decisions should be guided by how the result affects society and the economy. However, to date, the best support for such decisions has been assessment tools that estimate the impact of observing systems on NWP forecasts. These tools can be cumbersome and expensive. In some studies—under the auspices of EUMETSAT, the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS), and NOAA—the impact of improved weather information has been extended to socioeconomic impacts. The Advanced Systems Performance Evaluation Tool for NOAA (ASPEN) was developed to be a science-based and efficient tool for comparative assessment of observation systems. ASPEN also estimates the impacts of observing systems on applications including NWP and nowcasting. The purpose of this study is to translate ASPEN results into impacts on society and the economy. The proof-of-concept example presented is for deaths associated with weather-related catastrophic events (CAT events). For this demonstration, we envision a future in which CAT deaths are substantially reduced due to greatly improved nowcasting. This future scenario and the current state provide two points to define a transfer function (i.e., interpolation/extrapolation) from the ASPEN benefit to the number of CAT deaths. The quadratic extrapolation to the scenario of no weather satellite data gives an estimate that the current system saves more than 1200 lives annually from weather-related CAT events in the United States. In terms of the “value of a statistical life,” this corresponds to a savings of over 12 billion dollars annually, which is greater than the estimated annualized cost of the U.S. contribution to operational meteorological satellites.