The use of simulation models to evaluate mining projects in conditions of depletion of mineral reserves

Subject. The article discusses dynamic processes in the mining system, including changes in deposit parameters, economic indicators, technological limitations, and environmental influences. Objectives. The study aims to develop and verify a methodological approach to the use of simulation modeling to assess the economic feasibility of various mining options and make an informed choice of strategy that ensures the long-term sustainability of mining projects. Methods. The study draws on the scenario analysis. I offered a model to calculate net discounted income, taking into account the dependence of mining costs on the depth of development and changes in the quality of the mineral, and compared several scenarios of field operation with different resource extraction rates. Results. I developed and verified a simulation model. It enables to predict the behavior of the mineral extraction system under the condition of depletion of the resource base. The model considers changes in economic indicators, technological parameters, and external factors, making it possible to conduct a multivariate analysis and select the most sustainable field management strategy. The results obtained confirm the high practical importance of using simulation modeling in conditions of uncertainty and limited availability of natural resources. Conclusions. Simulation modeling is an effective decision support tool in the mining industry. The proposed approach provides a comprehensive account of interrelationships between economic, technological and environmental factors, enabling to form a strategy consistent with modern principles of sustainable development.