Pilot Study on Institutional Trust, Security, and Democratic Support in Ecuador During the 2024 Crisis

This pilot study seeks to answer the following question: How does the ongoing security crisis in Ecuador shape public support for democracy and approval of the incumbent government? Using a panel design with monthly surveys of 84 university students between June and November, perceptions of the armed forces, police, political parties, parliament, and ideological self-placement were assessed. The analysis shows that trust in the armed forces and the police significantly increases the probability of approving of the government, although only trust in the police is positively associated with the approval of democracy. For political institutions, only trust in parliament had a significant impact on both the dependent variables. Trust in political parties was not statistically significant. These findings suggest that, in crisis contexts, security institutions reinforce the legitimacy of the executive, while the legislative branch can become a key agent of democratic stability. Constant monitoring of institutional confidence is recommended, considering the risk of autocratization in presidential regimes in scenarios of prolonged conflict.