Radiative Forcing and Albedo Dynamics in the Yellow River Basin: Trends, Variability, and Land-Cover Effects

Climate change results from disruptions in Earth’s radiation energy balance. Radiative forcing is the dominant factor of climate change. Yet, most studies have focused on radiative effects within the calculated actual albedo, usually overlooking the angle effect of regions with large-scale and highly varied terrain. This study produced the actual albedo databases by using albedo retrieval look-up tables. And then we investigated the spatiotemporal variations in land surface albedo and its corresponding radiative effects in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 using MODIS-derived reflectance data. We employed time-series, trend, and anomaly detection analyses alongside surface downward shortwave radiation measurements to quantify the radiative forcing induced by land-cover changes. Our key findings reveal that (i) the basin’s average surface albedo was 0.171, with observed values ranging from 0.058 to 0.289; the highest variability was noted in the Loess Plateau during winter—primarily due to snowfall and low temperatures; (ii) a notable declining trend in the annual average albedo was observed in conjunction with rising temperatures, with annual values fluctuating between 0.165 and 0.184 and monthly averages spanning 0.1595 to 0.1853; (iii) land-cover transitions exerted distinct radiative forcing effects: conversions from grassland, shrubland, and wetland to water bodies produced forcings of 2.657, 2.280, and 2.007 W/m2, respectively, while shifts between barren land and cropland generated forcings of 4.315 and 2.696 W/m2. In contrast, transitions from cropland to shrubland and from grassland to shrubland resulted in minimal forcing, and changes from impervious surfaces and forested areas to other cover types yielded negative forcing, thereby exerting a net cooling effect. These findings not only deepen our understanding of the interplay between land-cover transitions and radiative forcing within the Yellow River Basin but also offer robust scientific support for regional climate adaptation, ecological planning, and sustainable land use management.