Hybrid Decomposition Strategies and Model Combinatorial Optimization for Runoff Prediction

Runoff prediction plays a critical role in water resource management and flood mitigation. Traditional runoff prediction methods often rely on single-layer optimization frameworks that process the data without decomposition and employ relatively simple prediction models, leading to suboptimal performance. In this study, a novel two-layer optimization framework is proposed that integrates data decomposition techniques with multi-model combination strategies, establishing a closed-loop feedback mechanism between decomposition and prediction processes. The framework employs the Snow Ablation Optimizer (SAO) to optimize combination weights across both layers. Its adaptive fitness function incorporates three evaluation metrics—Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)—to enable adaptive data processing and intelligent model selection. We validated the framework using observational data from Huangzhuang Hydrological Station in the Hanjiang River Basin. The results demonstrate that, at the decomposition layer, optimal performance was achieved by combining non-decomposition, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), and Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) (with coefficients 0.4061, 0.6115, and −0.0063), paired with the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. At the prediction layer, the proposed algorithm achieved a 32.84% improvement over the best single decomposition method and a 30.21% improvement over the best single combination optimization approach. These findings confirm the framework’s effectiveness in enhancing runoff data decomposition and optimizing multi-model selection.