Smart Logistics, Industrial Structure Upgrading, and the Sustainable Development of Foreign Trade: Evidence from Chinese Cities

As a key component of new infrastructure, smart logistics is becoming an essential driver for reducing foreign trade costs and risks and promoting the sustainable development of foreign trade. Using panel data from 286 prefecture level and above cities from 2014 to 2023, this article attempts to refine the measurement of smart logistics level from provincial to municipal levels, construct a two-way fixed effect model and a mediation effect model, and deeply explore the inherent relationship between smart logistics, industrial structure upgrading, and sustainable development of foreign trade. The results reveal that: (1) smart logistics significantly promotes the sustainable development of foreign trade. (2) Rationalization and advancement of industrial structure play an intermediary role between the two. (3) Market integration has a positive moderating effect on the path of “smart logistics—industrial structure rationalization”, but the moderating effect is not significant in other paths. It has been confirmed that there is a “siphon effect” in the advantageous regions. (4) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of smart logistics on foreign trade promotion is more significant in the central and inland regions. This study provides a theoretical basis and practical inspiration for optimizing regional smart logistics layout and deepening industrial structure adjustment.