Ground-mounted photovoltaic potential in Canada based on proximity to the electrical grid: Prince Edward Island case study

To meet Canada’s target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, installed renewable energy capacity needs to be scaled up quickly. While scaling up, connecting renewable energy systems to the electrical grid will be a critical factor. This article presents a methodology for estimating ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV) potential as a function of distance from the electrical grid, for any region in Canada or elsewhere. The Canadian landmass is mapped on a pixelated spatial grid and each pixel is characterized by four features, namely PV yield, distance from the electrical grid, slope and land cover class. Pixels are then included or excluded from PV potential estimates based on viability tests reflecting suitability for PV deployment. This method is applied to the province of Prince Edward Island (PEI) as a case study. Results highlight the importance of cropland and agrivoltaic applications to ground-mounted PV potential, with potential being roughly 13 times greater when cropland is included. However, even excluding cropland, this analysis suggests that the PV capacities identified in scenarios for PEI in 2050 could be deployed entirely within 1 km of the electrical grid. More granular analyses will be conducted in the future to refine these estimates considering additional constraints faced by PV developers.