Impact of Radiation Environment and Solar Array Uncertainty on Achieving Mission Power Requirements

We present a methodology that incorporates the variability and uncertainty of the space radiation environment, alongside uncertainties in solar array power predictions, to assess the reliability of solar array performance over the mission duration. Our approach compares two distinct methods for deriving reliability. The results emphasize the importance of integrating both variability and uncertainty into solar array power predictions to quantify risks more accurately. This approach can lead to streamlined solar array designs that avoids excessive overdesign while quantifying mission success.