Energy PLAN-based evaluation of renewable energy scenarios in semi-arid contexts

• This study presents a comprehensive strategy for integrating renewable energy into low-carbon systems in arid climates. • By analyzing five scenarios, results show that the hybrid solar-wind model will contribute 7.3% to electricity generation by 2030, enhancing energy security. • The study’s innovation lies in evaluating integrated renewable resources and utilizing the EnergyPLAN model for optimizing the national grid. • It provides policy recommendations for a sustainable energy transition and offers a decision-making framework for regions with high renewable energy potential. Growing concerns about global warming and increasing greenhouse gas emissions have prompted countries such as Iran to seek alternative energy sources and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. The aim of this study is to develop a comprehensive strategy for implementing renewable energy infrastructure in Semnan province, taking advantage of the significant wind and solar resources. The research develops three scenarios for the period 2020-2030 and 2020-2050, each considering different combinations of energy sources, fuels, and carbon emissions. The innovation of this work lies in the scenario-based approach, the integration of technical and economic analyses, and the use of EnergyPLAN software for detailed modeling and optimization. The hybrid scenario, which combines solar and wind energy, emerges as the most effective scenario and is projected to provide 7.3% of the province’s electricity generation by 2030. This integration not only optimizes resource use, but also increases the flexibility and sustainability of the grid. The results show that the hybrid scenario outperforms the individual solar and wind scenarios in all key performance metrics by 2050, achieving the highest renewable energy share (23.8%), the lowest CO₂ emissions (1.826 million tons), and the largest reduction in total fuel consumption (9.89 TWh/year). This study examines the integration of renewable energy sources – specifically solar and wind – into the electricity system of Semnan province through scenario-based modeling using EnergyPLAN software. In response to growing concerns about climate change, fossil fuel dependency, and the need for sustainable energy planning in arid regions, this research develops and evaluates three distinct scenarios: solar-only, wind-only, and hybrid configurations. The main objective is to assess the technical, economic, and environmental implications of each scenario over a long-term horizon (2020-2050), focusing on reducing CO₂ emissions, minimizing fuel consumption, and increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation.