Mind the Gap: Identifying Regional and Demographic Moderators of Well-being Change in the UK Using Two Waves of the Global Flourishing Survey Data

Well-being is a central focus of psychological science, yet most evidence comes from WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) populations, limiting the generalizability of findings. Using the UK subsample (N = 5,221 across 42 regions) of two waves of the Global Flourishing Study (GFS), a large, culturally diverse longitudinal dataset, this study examined the stability of well-being (happiness, life satisfaction, and life worth), the moderating role of demographic characteristics (age, gender, marital status, income), and the contribution of regional context. Multilevel models with random intercepts for regions were used to account for geographic nesting. Across outcomes, well-being was highly stable over one year, with baseline scores explaining most of the variance, leaving limited room for moderation. Consequently, moderation effects of demographic variables were generally small. Significant interactions emerged in some cases, indicating subtle differential trajectories and consistent with expectations that these structural influences unfold gradually over longer periods. Regional variance was minimal, suggesting that most variation occurs within individuals rather than across regions. Sensitivity analyses and robustness checks confirm these findings. These findings illuminate the robustness of short-term well-being measures and highlight the challenges of detecting moderation over brief intervals. Importantly, the study demonstrates the value of large-scale, culturally diverse longitudinal data and we provide lessons learned and a few statistical addendum for those working with data such as the GFS.