Negotiating Just Transition at the UNFCCC

Abstract This article argues that the Global South’s whole-systems vision of just transition was undermined by the Global North at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties 28 (COP28) in Dubai. Negotiations of the Work Program for Just Transition Pathways (WPJTP) were fraught, with those in the G20 making a strong case for a reductionist scope of just transition focusing on labor and the energy sector, and the G77+China, supported by climate-vulnerable nations, calling for a whole-systems approach focused on multiple overlapping conceptions of justice and driving forward systemic change. By analyzing negotiation drafts and drawing on direct participant observation, the article argues that entrenched power dynamics saw a whole-systems vision of just transition all but erased by the time COP28 had concluded. The article concludes with some reflections on why this spells trouble for the future of just transition under the UNFCCC.