Reconstruction of Water Storage Variability in the Aral Sea Region

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, operational from 2002 to 2017, provided critical measurements of Earth’s gravity field anomalies which have been extensively used to study groundwater and terrestrial water storage (TWS) dynamics. In this research, we utilize GRACE data to identify, model, and analyze potential climate parameters contributing to the reconstruction of TWS variability in the Aral Sea Basin region (ASB). We assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic nature management on TWS change using a quantitative method. Our analysis reveals a significant decline in the TWS at a rate of 0.44 cm year−1 during the 2005–2009 period, primarily attributed to the prevailing drought conditions in the region. Notably, the estimated impact of anthropogenic influence on TWS during the same period of −1.39 cm year−1 is higher than the influence of climatic variables, indicating that anthropogenic activity was the dominant factor in water resource depletion. In contrast, we observed an increase in TWS at a rate of 0.82 cm year−1 during the 2013–2017 period, which can be attributed to the implementation of more effective water resource management practices in the ASB.