Developmental Patterns of Offending Seriousness During Childhood and Adolescence: Examining Variety as a Proxy Measure and Neurodevelopmental Disorders as Predictors

Abstract A great deal of research has examined developmental heterogeneity in offending. However, there is limited research that has examined this in childhood. According to the dual taxonomy of offending, early onset offending should increase in seriousness as youth get older and neurodevelopmental disorders should predict life-course persistent patterns of offending like this. However, operationalization of “seriousness” of offending remains debated, particularly during childhood when official processing is unlikely. Offending variety scores may be one way to examine the early onset of offending and the progression of seriousness in this regard. Further, specific neurodevelopmental psychiatric disorders should be good predictors in this regard given their early onset and high potential for chronic course, but this remains understudied in childhood as well. This study sought to address these gaps by examining the differential development of offending variety in childhood and examining attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism spectrum disorder as predictors of development. The first three waves of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development-Social Development study were analyzed. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify heterogeneity in developmental patterns of offending. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine neurodevelopmental disorders as predictors of differential development. Results indicated that a three-group trajectory model best fit the data (Abstaining, Moderate, High). Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder at baseline predicted assignment to the Moderate group. The Moderate and High trajectory groups demonstrated declines in offending variety across the study period, leading to concerns about how well this approximates progression of offending seriousness. Results were nearly analogous by gender, though considerations should be made for the measurement of neurodevelopmental disorders among girls to provide more robust analyses in this regard.