A Fragile Surge: European Support to Ukraine in Early 2025 – New Insights from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker

Abstract Following the suspension of new US aid to Ukraine in early 2025, European countries faced mounting pressure to fill the resulting gap. This paper analyses the extent to which Europe has responded, drawing on data from the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker Release 23. The findings reveal that European donors have significantly increased their support, allocating a record €26.9 billion in the first trimester of 2025, helping to offset the absence of new US support. However, this surge is unevenly distributed between countries and partly reliant on exceptional financing sources, such as interest from frozen Russian assets. Structural constraints, including limited defense industrial capacity, raise further questions about the sustainability of this effort. While Europe’s initial response is encouraging, its durability remains uncertain in the absence of structural reforms and more balanced burden-sharing.