On the Political Economy of Conflicts in the Middle East and Africa

ABSTRACT In this research, we aim to identify the main factors that explain the occurrence and intensity of armed conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa. We extend the conventional linear Bayesian Model Averaging procedure by incorporating conflict intensity, which is measured across a spectrum of violence levels, departing from the typical binary classification of war or peace. We provide strong evidence that not only demographical, institutional, and socio‐economic but also environmental factors must be considered when analysing conflict onset and intensity. Notably, institutional variables become more significant when accounting for neighbouring effects. Furthermore, institutional, economic, and historical factors are essential for understanding the role of environmental factors in shaping conflict dynamics. Finally, we show that model averaging predictions for ordered categorical outcomes improve upon the existing out‐of‐sample conflict prediction techniques.