MODELING THE QUALITATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES UNDER SANCTIONS PRESSURE: AN AGENT-BASED APPROACH

In this paper we address the task of forecasting consequences of sanctions for economies of the involved countries by creating the agent-based model of trade wars.The developed model considers trade relation among Russia, European Union, China and the United States, and using it we study dynamics of demand for products and availability of supplies under sanctions.The model was programmed in MS Visual Studio; its information support is based on international statistical data.Two main scenarios were considered: (1) Western countries impose sanctions against Russia, the rest world is neutral; (2) severe sanctions are imposed against Russia and China.The first scenario showed that Russian enterprises are mostly sensitive to fluctuations in demand, while European enterprises suffer from reduction of fuel and material supplies.In the second scenario Chinese enterprises are affected by decrease of demand and American enterprises struggle to substitute supplies of materials and components.