China’s Oil Security Under the “Double Carbon” Constraint: An Entropy Method-Based Analysis

This paper evaluates China’s oil security from 2010 to 2019 under the “double carbon” constraint using an entropy-based multi-indicator system. The system encompasses four dimensions: supply security, demand security, market security, and the “double carbon” constraint, with 16 secondary indicators. The results show that China’s oil security experienced three stages: a peak followed by a decline and then a low-level fluctuation. Supply security deteriorated due to tightening domestic oil production, while demand security remained low despite improvements in consumption structure. Market security was negatively impacted by rising import dependence and declining foreign exchange reserves. However, the “dual carbon” constraint has led to an annual increase in China’s carbon emission intensity score and a continuous rise in the proportion of clean energy consumption, effectively alleviating the pressure on oil security. The findings highlight the need for China to increase oil supply investment, ensure smooth market operations, and promote low-carbon development to enhance its oil security. The TOPSIS method is employed to validate the robustness of the results. Future research should combine subjective and objective methods, comprehensively utilize the advantages of various methods, and improve the accuracy and effectiveness of analysis.