Steel flows and stocks in the Global South highlight development gaps

Abstract Steel is a fundamental ingredient in infrastructure development worldwide, yet most countries in the Global South are overlooked as part of the ‘rest of the world’. This study fills this gap by analyzing how steel is produced, traded, and accumulated in 16 countries across South America, Africa, and Asia. Despite their regional differences, all countries share key characteristics: limited domestic steelmaking and a persistent reliance on imports. On average, only about one-third of finished steel products (e.g. sheets) and one-fourth of steel embedded in end-use goods (e.g. cars) originate from domestically produced liquid steel. This trend is not limited to iron ore-poor countries. Even major iron ore exporters depend on imports for fabricated steel products, highlighting unequal participation in global value chains. We also find that half of these countries have not yet reached the minimum in-use steel stock required to support decent living standards, and none have exceeded the levels compatible with a well-below 2 °C carbon budget. This situation underscores both a need for further infrastructure development and an opportunity to do so within a finite global carbon budget, provided that fair budget allocation and international support are ensured. Our findings collectively indicate that advancing steel recycling and decarbonization in the Global South must be pursued as a shared global agenda, rather than left as something for these countries to solve alone.