Exploring the potential habitats and ecological niche dynamics of the invasive giant African Snail (Lissachatina fulica) via a structural modeling approach

The Giant African Snail ( Lissachatina fulica ) is a highly invasive and destructive terrestrial mollusc that poses significant threats to biodiversity, agricultural systems, and human/animal health. This study systematically evaluated its suitable habitat dynamics, centroid migration patterns, niche characteristics, and environmental driving mechanisms under climate change by coupling biomod2 ensemble models, niche dynamic quantification, and Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface/Most Dissimilar Variable (MESS/MoD) analysis. Key results demonstrate that: Suitable habitats exhibit expansive trends across all scenarios except for minor contraction under 2050s-ssp126, with distribution centroids persistently shifting northward, while habitat expansion consistently exceeds contraction in magnitude; High niche overlap (D=0.7676–0.8531) and strong stability (>99.8%) confirm strict adherence to the niche conservatism hypothesis, whereas continuously increasing niche breadth (B1/B2) reflects adaptive evolution through broadened environmental tolerance; Mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), human influence index (hii), and precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16) constitute core drivers, with MESS/MoD analysis further identifying bio11, bio16, precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18) and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) as critical differential variables driving the dynamics of suitable habitats. Consequently, we recommend establishing real-time monitoring and early-warning systems in high-risk zones (particularly agricultural belts and invasion fronts), implementing border quarantine and early eradication programs in uninvaded regions, and conducting sustained disinfestation to suppress population spread in colonized areas. The integrated "models-niche dynamic quantification-similarity" framework developed in this study provides a universal paradigm for invasive species risk assessment.