The Role of ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific towards China’s Coercive Policies in South China Sea Dispute

Background and Objectives: The South China Sea is a vital geopolitical and economic region, serving as a major international trade route, a rich source of marine and energy resources, and a focal point of territorial disputes. The overlapping sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, particularly between China and ASEAN Member States (AMS), have intensified regional tensions, with China’s coercive policies shaping the strategic environment. In response, ASEAN introduced the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) in 2019 to promote regional stability, inclusivity, and adherence to international law. While AOIP emphasizes ASEAN’s centrality in shaping the Indo-Pacific order, its effectiveness in countering China’s assertive actions remains a critical issue. This study examines the role of AOIP in responding to China’s coercive policies in the South China Sea dispute, utilizing the framework of strategic hedging. The research aims to analyze how ASEAN countries leverage AOIP as a diplomatic and strategic framework to balance relations with China while maintaining regional autonomy and stability. Methods: This study uses a qualitative research approach through a comprehensive analysis of secondary sources, including books, journal articles, government documents, and international news reports. By utilizing the strategic hedging framework, the research investigates ASEAN’s strategic responses to China’s maritime assertiveness, assessing AOIP’s role in mitigating tensions and maintaining regional order. Data collection involves filtering relevant literature and policy documents to understand ASEAN’s diplomatic positioning and engagement with major powers. The research also explores ASEAN’s historical interactions with China and evaluates how AOIP provides a platform for member states through the geopolitical complexities of the Indo-Pacific. Results: The results revealed that ASEAN’s AOIP plays a limited but on the other hand, a strategic role in response to China’s coercive policies in the South China Sea. Despite ASEAN’s internal divisions and lack of a supranational authority, the AOIP serves as a diplomatic platform for negotiation and regional stability. However, it lacks a concrete mechanism to counter China’s aggression. ASEAN member states, prioritizing national interests, have adopted a hedging strategy—balancing economic ties with China while safeguarding territorial integrity. This study shows that though AOIP cannot solve the problem or dispute directly, it remains a key tool in helping ASEAN to manage regional tensions and uphold its relevance in Indo-Pacific security. Application of this study: ASEAN can use the AOIP to strengthen diplomatic ties with both China and the United States of America, creating a space for negotiation that helps reduce the risk of conflict and promotes regional security. By balancing relations with China while safeguarding their own territorial interests, ASEAN countries can manage their complex relationships with China, particularly in the South China Sea. Additionally, ASEAN can shape international rules on maritime security and territorial disputes by continuing to develop the AOIP. This action could help set global norms for resolving conflicts like those in the South China Sea. AOIP can also be used to promote mediation, trust-building, and cooperation, helping to reduce tensions and promote long-term peace in the region. Conclusions: This study examined the role of ASEAN’s AOIP in responding to China’s coercive policies in the South China Sea. AOIP reinforces ASEAN’s commitment to regional peace and security while balancing the influence of major powers like China and the United States of America. Through a hedging strategy, ASEAN nations try to maintain economic ties with China while safeguarding their territorial interests. Although AOIP does not directly resolve disputes, it serves as a diplomatic platform for negotiation and conflict mitigation. Despite challenges in achieving a unified stance, AOIP remains a crucial tool for helping ASEAN reduce regional tensions.