Using Scenarios for Reducing Uncertainties in Biodiversity Conservation: From Global Targets to European Steppes

ABSTRACT Scenario analysis allows assessing how complex socio‐ecological systems might respond to different policy pathways. We used an expert‐based participatory approach to explore how four different European socio‐ecological scenarios could impact (1) the implementation of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM‐GBF) and (2) the achievement of priority conservation actions for safeguarding European steppe ecosystems. KM‐GBF targets were expected to be met only under the scenario with increased commitment for sustainable development goals and global cooperation, but hardly achievable under the most environment‐adverse and resource‐demanding scenarios. Integrating different views from these scenarios, we identified six overarching recommendations for the conservation of European steppe ecosystems, including improving public awareness, empowering local communities, and promoting the engagement of private companies into conservation planning. Our approach identifies how socioeconomic drivers influence the success of the KM‐GBF and the conservation of European steppes, providing a range of general conservation actions structured and prioritized to be effective under a wide range of likely future developments.

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Publication Details

Journal
Conservation Letters
Published
2025-08-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.13138
Primary Topic
Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Using Scenarios for Reducing Uncertainties in Biodiversity Conservation: From Global Targets to European Steppes

Núria Roura‐Pascual, François Mougeot, Beatriz Arroyo, Marina Golivets et al.
Conservation Letters
Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
article

Using Scenarios for Reducing Uncertainties in Biodiversity Conservation: From Global Targets to European Steppes

Núria Roura‐Pascual, François Mougeot, Beatriz Arroyo, Marina Golivets, Ana Sanz‐Pérez, Manuel B. Morales, Rocío Tarjuelo, Cristian Pérez‐Granados, Carolina Bravo, Matthias Vögeli, Radovan Václav, Andrea Santangeli, Santi Mañosa, Piotr Tryjanowski, Carlos A. Martín, David Giralt, Francisco Valera, Francisco Moreira, Alejandro Onrubia, Luis Bolonio, Bernd Lenzner, Tiago Mendes, Juán Traba, B. Nikolov, Gérard Bota, Julia Gómez‐Catasús, Daniel Bustillo‐de la Rosa, Pedro P. Olea, Fabián Casas, Natalia Revilla‐Martín, Germán M. López‐Iborra, João Gameiro, Mattia Brambilla, Margarita Reverter, Elena D. Concepción, Martin Šálek, Gabriel López‐Poveda, Xabier Cabodevilla, Pedro Sáez‐Gómez, Gonzalo Jiménez Varas, Ana Benítez‐López, Mario Dı́az, Ana Teresa Marques, Julia Zurdo, Guillaume Latombe, Adrián Barrero, João Paulo Silva, Iván Salgado, David Serrano, Antonio Leiva
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Scenario analysis allows assessing how complex socio‐ecological systems might respond to different policy pathways. We used an expert‐based participatory approach to explore how four different European socio‐ecological scenarios could impact (1) the implementation of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM‐GBF) and (2) the achievement of priority conservation actions for safeguarding European steppe ecosystems. KM‐GBF targets were expected to be met only under the scenario with increased commitment for sustainable development goals and global cooperation, but hardly achievable under the most environment‐adverse and resource‐demanding scenarios. Integrating different views from these scenarios, we identified six overarching recommendations for the conservation of European steppe ecosystems, including improving public awareness, empowering local communities, and promoting the engagement of private companies into conservation planning. Our approach identifies how socioeconomic drivers influence the success of the KM‐GBF and the conservation of European steppes, providing a range of general conservation actions structured and prioritized to be effective under a wide range of likely future developments.

Conservation LettersVol. 18(5)
Universidad de Valladolid (ES), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (ES), University of Vienna (AT), University of Alicante (ES), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (DE), University of Lisbon (PT), Universidad de Oviedo (ES), Universidad de Granada (ES), Universidade do Porto (PT), University of Milan (IT), Universidad de Alcalá (ES), Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ), Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), University of Évora (PT), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BG), Universitat de Girona (ES), Swiss Ornithological Institute (CH), Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES), Legambiente (IT), Estacion Experimental de Zonas Aridas (ES), Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (ES), Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (ES), Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (ES), Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (ES), Cepsa (Spain) (ES), Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research (BG), Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (ES), Institut de Biologia Evolutiva (ES), Fundación General (ES), Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology (CZ), Agencia de Medio Ambiente y Agua de Andalucía (ES), Institute of Zoology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Principado de Asturias (ES), University of Life Sciences in Poznań (PL), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (ES), Universitat de Barcelona (ES), University of Edinburgh (GB)
European Commission, Universidad de Valladolid, European Regional Development Fund, Agencia Estatal de Investigación
Openalex Percentile: Top 77%
Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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