Structural, Solution-Based, and Contextual Analysis of Conditional Probability Problems: Focusing on the 2022 Revised Mathematics Curriculum “Probability and Statistics” Textbooks

This study analyzes conditional probability problems in six “Probability and Statistics” textbooks aligned with the 2022 revised mathematics curriculum from structural, solution-based, and contextual perspectives. All problems in the conditional probability and multiplicative rules chapters were collected, and an analytic framework was established based on prior research. Structurally, non-ternary problems slightly outnumbered ternary problems, with the latter dominated by L0 and L2-families and very few L1-family items. Solution-wise, many problems were most efficiently tackled using either the classical or the general definition of conditional probability. Contextually, problems appeared in the following order of frequency: random experiments, statistical surveys, diagnostic testing, and purely mathematical scenarios. Based on these findings, we recommend expanding L1-family and T2, T3 problems, incorporating activities that explicitly compare multiple solution methods, and broadening real-world contexts-especially inverse-probability settings in diagnostic testing-to enhance textbook diversity and inform effective teaching and learning strategies.