Multidimensional risk assessment framework for water and land resources in alpine plateau regions under climate change: a case study of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

• Multidimensional water and land resources risk assessment framework. • Random forest modelling to resolve multi-factor coupling effects. • Risk increases more than resilience in the future. • Increased resilience is the key path to risk mitigation. Under the global warming context, alpine plateau regions face escalating water and land resource (WLR) risks due to their unique ecological functions and accelerating climate change. This study focuses on the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, establishing a multidimensional WLR risk assessment framework integrating risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. A random forest model was employed to identify driving factors of these risks, and future trajectories of risk evolution under projected scenarios were quantified. Key findings include: (1) During the historical period (2000–2020), medium–high risk areas expanded at 1.11% per five-year interval, with risk factors (extreme drought-flood frequency, freeze–thaw erosion sensitivity) being dominant drivers (contributions: 35.85). Resilience factors (vegetation resilience, water retention capacity) significantly regulated low-risk areas (contribution: 40.81%). (2) Under SSP scenarios, high-risk areas are projected to occupy 28.15% by 2060, concentrated in the southern Yangtze River source and western Yellow River source regions, where risk intensification (1.9–32.50%) substantially outweighs resilience enhancement (0.09–15.15%). (3) Multifactorial synergy analysis reveals habitat quality degradation (12.26% contribution to high-risk areas), livestock overloading (18.03% contribution to medium-risk areas), and extreme hydrological events (10.13% contribution to flood risks) as primary causes, while vegetation resilience reinforcement (14.65% contribution to low-risk mitigation) and WLR allocation optimization (7.89% contribution to medium–low risk reduction) emerge as critical pathways. The study proposes prioritized implementation of an integrated “grazing prohibition compensation − permafrost protection − ecological corridor restoration” strategy in risk hotspots, and establishing a resilience regulation system based on climate adaptation thresholds.