Integrating climate change and land use change into storm flood impact analysis in coastal cities

Shanghai, China This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for quantifying storm surge floods in coastal cities by incorporating the influences of both climate change and urbanization. The framework achieves a physically process-based numerical simulation of storm surge-induced flood hazards due to tropical cyclones in coastal cities by coupling the fast flood inundation model (SFINCS) and the land use change model (GeoSOS-FLUS), along with the numerical nested model for storm surges (Delft 3D Flow & Wave). Using a 1000-year tropical cyclone simulated by the STORM model as an example, this study analyzes and maps coastal flood impacts under the moderate climate scenario (SSPs245) and high emission scenario (SSPs585), and also evaluates the impact of land use changes on these scenarios. Taking Shanghai, China as an example, the results show that by 2100, urban land use changes will lead to an increase in the extent of 1000-year TC flooding areas by 4.91–34.00 %, underestimating the inundation area of storm surges if future urban land use changes are not considered. Additionally, our predictions indicate the vulnerability of Chongming island and Changxing island to the impacts of climate change, despite the protective role of coastal embankments considered in the tropical cyclone storm surge simulation. The results of this study represent an important contribution to a better understanding of how future urban land use changes will affect storm surge flooding risks in and around Shanghai. The proposed methodology can be applied to coastal areas worldwide that are vulnerable to tropical cyclones, aiding in the formulation of hazard mitigation policies to alleviate flood impacts in these regions. • Integrated climate change and urbanization into storm flood impact assessment. • Coupled GeoSOS-FLUS, Delft3D, and SFINCS to simulate 1000-year TC storm surge impacts. • Ignoring land use changes underestimates storm surge inundation areas by up to 34 % by 2100. • Identified Chongming and Changxing Islands as highly vulnerable to future storm surges.