In and Out: Comparative Analysis of NASA and Industry Spacecraft Costs

Spacecraft development is costly and complex, requiring diverse management and acquisition strategies. As the private sector’s role grows, cost models must account for varying private sector participation. Science missions without commercial value rely on traditional procurement, where a public agency manages the overall project. Within this approach, agencies must decide whether to develop spacecraft in-house or contract with industry. This study examines whether spacecraft developer type—NASA or industry—affects spacecraft cost under traditional procurement. A regression model reveals that industry-built spacecraft are associated with lower cost, especially for lower-risk classification C and D projects. However, for higher-risk class A and B projects, developer type has no significant effect. Additionally, spacecraft developer type does not significantly affect total project cost, regardless of the risk classification. Since spacecraft cost accounts for 40% of the total project cost on average, the impact of developer type on the overall project cost is diminished. Consistent with existing models, spacecraft mass remains the primary cost driver, with mission risk classification and deep-space operation also influencing costs. These findings offer insights into spacecraft cost dynamics, particularly in complex missions, and contribute to a more nuanced understanding of how to better leverage industry’s cost advantages in public programs.