How Changing Narratives About the Future Shape Policymaking for the Long Term

ABSTRACT How can we explain decisions by governments to engage in policy investments—accepting short‐term costs in return for anticipated gains in the longer term—after previously sustaining the status quo? Our article examines the role of narratives in changing expectations about the future as a key driver of intertemporal policymaking. In light of an uncertain future, governments make policy decisions that rely on expectations regarding the anticipated consequences of different policy options. We propose that new narratives about the future can shift expectations regarding the anticipated costs and benefits of policy investments; in turn, prompting policy reform. To empirically substantiate this argument, we present findings from two case studies of major reforms in the UK regarding pensions and education policy. Both cases show how shifting narratives about the future can trigger policy change; even in a context where the relative influence of organized interests and institutions remains stable.