Projecting Range Shifts of Hippophae neurocarpa in China Under Future Climate Change Using CMIP6 Models

Hippophae neurocarpa S. W. Liu & T. N. Ho exhibits established medicinal characteristics, valuable dietary attributes, and remarkable adaptability, displaying strong resistance to cold, drought, and to acidic and alkaline soils. These traits and others make it a valuable species for soil erosion control and a distinctive economic forest tree in western China. However, research on its geographic distribution remains limited. To address this gap, we employed the MaxEnt model to map its current distribution and to predict the future geographic distribution of suitable habitats for this species under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Collectively, these data suggest that the species’ current and future suitable habitats are predominantly concentrated at the junction of the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau. Under present climatic conditions, highly suitable habitats are primarily located in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with smaller patches in the Hengduan and Himalaya mountains. The AUC value of this model reached 0.954; projections under three future emission scenarios indicate an overall expansion trend in suitable habitat area. Notably, by the 2070s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the total suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 11.64%—the highest among all scenarios. Additionally, climate change is expected to drive a slight northward shift in the species’ distribution center toward higher latitudes. Key environmental factors influencing its projected distribution include elevation (elev), temperature seasonality (bio04), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18). These insights are critical for conserving H. neurocarpa’s genetic resources and guiding future biodiversity conservation strategies.