Development of a New Approach for Estimate Optimum Parameters for Design and Material Selection in Livestock Buildings

In this study, a new approach was developed for the estimation of optimum parameters (ODP), in terms of materials and design in livestock barns, and for optimal design. For this purpose, two thousand simulations were run using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques and Latin hypercube methods using the Energy Plus program on a 50-head closed dairy farm. In this study, the heat balance in the barn was adapted to Energy Plus using an innovative approach, using heat balance equations according to the ASHRAE Standard. First, data normality was determined using the Shapiro–Wilk (SW) and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) tests. Data on thermal stress duration and energy consumption for dairy cattle welfare were estimated directly from the simulations, and sensitivity (SA) and uncertainty (UA) analyses were conducted. Furthermore, the statistical relationship between thermal comfort and energy consumption was determined using Pearson correlation. The predicted values obtained from the simulations were validated with barn values, and time-series overlay plots and histograms were generated. Furthermore, interpretations of the validation processes were made based on MBE, RSME, and R2 statistical values. The study estimated an indoor thermal comfort temperature of 12 °C, and this value was taken into account in the innovatively developed simulations. The estimated optimum design parameters in the study resulted in energy reductions of 25% and 41% for walls and roofs, 48% and 19% for cooling and heating setpoint temperatures, 43% and 37% for window areas, and 75% and 40% for natural and mechanical ventilation, respectively. When the design parameters were evaluated holistically and analyzed in terms of average values, the new simulation model achieved approximately 50% energy savings. We believe that the newly developed approach will guide future planning for countries, the public, and private sectors to ensure animal welfare and reduce energy consumption.