Optimal Disaster Fund strategy: Seeking the ideal mix of Disaster Risk Financing instruments

Abstract Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) presents a massive challenge to governments worldwide in protecting against catastrophic disaster losses. This study explores the development of a Disaster Fund that optimally integrates various DRF instruments, considering several real-world factors, including limited reserves, constrained risk horizons, risk aversion, risk tolerance, insurance structures, and premium pricing strategies. We demonstrate that the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Tail VaR constraints are equivalent when the government has a limited risk horizon. Furthermore, we investigate the optimality of various insurance structures under different premium principles, conduct comparative statics on key parameters, and analyze the influence of a VaR constraint on the optimal mix of disaster financing instruments. Lastly, we apply our Disaster Fund model to the National Flood Insurance Program dataset to assess the optimal disaster financing strategy within the context of our framework.