Urbanization and Its Environmental Impact in Ceredigion County, Wales: A 20-Year Remote Sensing and GIS-Based Assessment (2003–2023)

Urbanization is a dominant force reshaping human settlements, driving socio-economic development while also causing significant environmental challenges. With over 56% of the world's population now residing in urban areas-a figure expected to rise to two-thirds by 2050-land use changes are accelerating rapidly. The conversion of natural landscapes into impervious surfaces such as concrete and asphalt intensifies the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, raises urban temperatures, and strains local ecosystems. This study investigates land use and landscape changes in Ceredigion County, UK, utilizing remote sensing and GIS techniques to analyze urbanization impacts over two decades (2003-2023). Results indicate significant urban expansion of approximately 122 km², predominantly at the expense of agricultural and forested areas, leading to vegetation loss and changes in water availability. County-wide mean land surface temperature (LST) increased from 21.4 °C in 2003 to 23.65 °C in 2023, with urban areas recording higher values around 27.1 °C, reflecting a strong UHI effect. Spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, NDBI, and NDBaI) reveal that urban sprawl adversely affects vegetation health, water resources, and land surfaces. The Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) further highlights areas experiencing thermal discomfort. Additionally, machine learning models, including Linear Regression and Random Forest, were employed to forecast future LST trends, projecting urban LST values to potentially reach approximately 27.4 °C by 2030. These findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable urban planning, reforestation, and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the environmental impacts of rapid urban growth and ensure the resilience of both human and ecological systems.