Exploring Carbon Emission Peak and Reduction Strategies in China’s Industrial Sector: A Case Study of Wuxi City

As the world’s largest manufacturing country, China’s industrial carbon emission reduction is crucial to achieving its “dual carbon” goals. This paper takes Wuxi, a national low-carbon pilot city in Jiangsu Province, as a case, using a bottom-up factor decomposition model to study industrial carbon peak prediction and sector-specific emission reduction strategies. Results show that under the usual-growth scenario (UG), Wuxi’s industrial emissions keep growing and will not peak before 2030, reaching 122.18 million tCO2 that year. Under the emission-controlled scenario (EC), with industrial structure optimization and energy intensity control, emissions peak in 2026 at 100.55 million tCO2, 17.7% lower than the baseline. The reinforced-mitigation scenario (RM), combining in-depth structural adjustment and technological upgrade, sees the peak in 2025 at 94.22 million tCO2, a 22.9% reduction. It is necessary to implement differentiated emission reduction strategies, focusing on high-emission and low-carbon productivity industries such as electricity and heat production, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling. Through precise management and control, the overall emission reduction efficiency can be improved, providing a reference paradigm for the low-carbon transformation of similar industrial cities.