Behavioral and psychological determinants of pedestrian collisions on arterial roads with evidence from random parameter models

Arterial roads, while comprising a small percentage of total roadway mileage in the U.S., contribute disproportionately to pedestrian fatalities. Focusing on the behavioral and psychological dimensions of crash risk, this study analyzes 1722 pedestrian crashes on principal arterials and 1614 on minor arterials in Louisiana from 2017 to 2021. A Random Parameter Multinomial Logit Model with Heterogeneity in Means and Variance captures the hidden variation in how individual behaviors and situational contexts affect injury outcomes. Results indicate that perceptual challenges (dark conditions without street lighting), driver decision errors (lane departures), and alcohol‑impaired judgment are strong predictors of severe or fatal crashes. Marginal effects show elevated risk when pedestrians or drivers navigate low‑visibility environments, single‑vehicle settings that isolate responsibility, and scenarios involving Black pedestrians who may face systemic exposure and behavioral adaptation under stress. Conversely, proactive behaviors such as attentive movement before impact, lane keeping, and navigating mixed-use areas with higher driver expectancy can reduce the likelihood of severe injury. Psychological and situational determinants differ by arterial class: on principal arterials, perceptual load and alcohol impairment dominate, whereas on minor arterials, risk‑taking maneuvers like midblock crossings and expectancy violations shape outcomes. These insights underscore the need for Safe System Approach (SSA) interventions that couple engineering fixes (street lighting, access control, enhanced midblock crossings) with behaviorally informed strategies such as targeted impaired‑driving enforcement, perception‑based educational campaigns, and context‑specific outreach for at‑risk demographic groups.