ASEAN’s Ocean-Linked Merchandise and Trade Facilitation: A Quantitative Assessment of Regional Trade Flows

Situated within the strategic context of the ASEAN Blue Economy Framework, this paper presents a quantitative assessment of the multifaceted influence of trade facilitation (TF) on ocean-linked merchandise trade. Using a gravity model with PPML estimation on panel data for nine ASEAN coastal countries and thirty-three global partners from 2017 to 2022, the analysis provides a distinct examination of intra-ASEAN and extra-ASEAN trade flows, employing an expanded classification of ocean-linked goods and updated TF metrics. The results consistently show that TF reforms significantly boost maritime commerce by minimizing border delays and transaction costs, with the trade-enhancing effects being more pronounced for trade with partners outside the ASEAN region. Among the different dimensions, effective governance and improved transparency were found to be particularly impactful catalysts for trade. However, the analysis also confirms that these positive trends were hindered by persistent impediments, such as geographical distance, and were significantly counteracted by adverse policy and economic shocks in 2019 and 2022. These findings underscore the necessity of a targeted TF strategy for ASEAN, focusing on strengthening governance and transparency to enhance efficiency, build supply chain resilience, and sustainably harness the region's strategic maritime potential.