Economic assessment of hydrocarbon resources and enhancement of the efficiency of geological exploration in the Ustyurt region

Purpose. To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the economic efficiency of oil and gas geological exploration activities (GEA) and to identify the main reserves for its improvement. Additionally, the study analyzes the existing planning system for exploration works in the Ustyurt oil and gas region and identifies the correlations between the volumes of deep drilling and the increase in discovered reserves using econometric models. Methodology. The following methods were employed: comprehensive analysis and systematization of previous research results documented in archives and published sources; analogy and comparison methods ‒ to outline the directions of geological exploration and prioritize sites; the graph-analytical method. Findings. A forecast of oil and gas potential was performed using the complete set of available geological data to determine both the initial total and prospective hydrocarbon resources, as well as their spatial distribution and accumulation conditions. Applying established methods for estimating prospective hydrocarbon resources ‒ while taking into account the results of geological exploration in the Ustyurt region and the patterns of hydrocarbon deposit distribution in the sedimentary section ‒ enabled the identification of priority directions for near-term GEA, along with an assessment of the profitability of developing these hydrocarbon resources. The forecasted hydrocarbon resources of the Ustyurt region have been substantiated and range from 15.0 (Samsky Gas-and-Oil Region (GOR)) to 249.0 thousand t.o.e./km2 (Sudochy GOR). Originality. For the first time, the economic feasibility of developing hydrocarbon resources in the priority areas of the Northern Ustyurt region has been demonstrated. One such area is the Barsakelmes site, where the profitability, considering revenues from domestic-market hydrocarbon sales, reached 147 %. Practical value. The necessity and effectiveness of carrying out geological exploration in the southeastern part of the Barsakelmes macrodepression have been substantiated. This area has a sedimentary cover thickness similar to that of the Sudochy depression, which was used as an analog to determine the profitability of GEA. Within this depression, the feasibility of planning further exploration on 20 identified structures has been confirmed. Additionally, the profitability of developing the resources of prospective areas has been substantiated.