Confined to stay: Migration restrictions, natural disasters, and poverty

How do restrictions to international migration affect communities’ ability to cope with natural disasters? We exploit the implementation of an emigration ban for millions of Indonesians wanting to migrate to Saudi Arabia as a natural experiment. Our identification strategy relies on pre-determined migration networks and on the exogenous timing of the ban and of natural disasters. Using a panel of the universe of Indonesian villages and a triple difference approach, we demonstrate that poverty increases in wake of natural disasters are higher in communities with strong ex-ante migration ties to Saudi Arabia after the ban was implemented. This highlights the importance of international migration as a climate-change adaptation strategy. • We analyze the impact of Indonesia’s 2011 ban on female emigration to Saudi Arabia. • The ban caused a drop in migrant stocks in villages with migration ties to Saudi Arabia. • After the ban, the effect of natural disasters on poverty is higher in villages dependent on migration to Saudi Arabia. • Poverty effects are strongest in agriculture-dependent villages because disasters also reduce employment opportunities. • This demonstrates the role of international migration as a shock-coping strategy.