Has the Philippines Reversed its Democratic Decline?

The Philippines offers a case study of the difficulties of determining whether a sustainable reversal of a country’s ‘regime trajectory’ is under way. President Rodrigo Duterte’s tenure (2016–22) witnessed an assault on liberal norms and institutions. To the surprise of many, his successor, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr, has taken actions that suggest the rule of law might be making a comeback. But what evidence is there that the authoritarian tide has ebbed? And what can recent history reveal about the dynamics of democratic backsliding and the potential to insulate policymaking from such trends? While Marcos has curtailed Duterte’s most egregious practices, accountability institutions continue to be systematically subverted. Two decades of regime uncertainty have not, however, prevented successive presidents from pursuing liberal approaches in two policy areas: peace-building in the war-torn Bangsamoro region and promoting gender equality. Continuity amid illiberal headwinds was in both cases facilitated by the creation of specialised institutions that draw civil society into policymaking.